Seasonal crop outlook

Cover of Seasonal crop outlook - wheat

At the end of June, current soil water conditions and the seasonal rainfall outlook (incorporating the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) phase system) indicate that chances of an above median wheat yield during the 2009 wheat-growing season are average for most of Queensland. There is, however, some variation within the state´s cropping region with most areas in southern Queensland showing a slightly above average forecast median yield, while forecast median yield expectations in Central Queensland are slightly below the long-term median for that region. This mainly reflects the patterns of fallow rainfall and consequent soil moisture replenishment as well as the reduced chances of rainfall during the next three months based on the prevailing SOI phase (i.e. 'consistently near zero') at the end of June. Widespread above average rainfall would still be needed during the next few weeks for the late plantings to proceed. The likely range of yield outcomes is still very wide.